marketing working? outcome-to-math in five steps

business · 2026-10-13 · 6 min

analytics-first guides bury owners in terminology; start from the decision instead. hubspot sells CRM attribution, vendors sell dashboards — the freelancer version fits on one page: outcome, event, source capture, revenue link, channel math. attribution allocates credit among touchpoints; it never proves causation (google documents the models — read the fine print competitors skip).

the five-step setup (spreadsheet-compatible)

outcome named (orders, bookings, qualified calls — the money event: what counts as a conversion). event marked (GA4 key event or counter goal — counts + sources reported). source captured (how-found field on forms, call tracking or asking, UTM on campaigns — offline sales included, not excused). revenue linked (which leads became customers, at what value — CRM or sheet, updated monthly). channel math (cost per channel vs customers × value: CAC = spend ÷ new customers; LTV = average value × lifespan; BDC's guideline 2.5-3× LTV:CAC is a rule of thumb, not physics).

reading it without lying to yourself

compare year-over-year (seasons lie). separate brand from non-brand (your-name searches would convert anyway — non-brand growth is the marketing signal). weight money over traffic (rankings and visits without events are weather). one change at a time (parallel changes teach nothing). kill criteria preset (this channel gets 3 months and €X — decide the funeral before the wedding).

what competitors won't tell you

their dashboards assume staffed marketing teams and ignore phone-and-van realities (calls, referrals, walk-ins need capture too). their attribution never mentions that last-click lies (brand search harvests demand content created). their case studies never show the spreadsheet — demand artifacts, not adjectives, from anyone selling marketing: agency verification.

FAQ

one number to watch?

customers acquired per channel per month, with cost. everything else diagnoses movement in that number.

marketing vs sales problem?

leads flowing, none closing: sales/offer problem. no leads: marketing/traffic problem. conflating them buys ads for a broken close — diagnose the stage first: zero customers triage.